Thursday, August 22, 2013

Lolly medicine

I realised something this week - there's a reason that cherry flavours aren't abundant in Australia. (Yeah, I know they have cherry ripe.) Only recently did I find a bottle of grenadine, something which is in almost every supermarket in the States, usually next to the peanuts. Grenadine makes a nice cherry flavoured drink when you mix in some Sprite (Australian lemonade) on a hot summer day.  Sure you're just making cherry 7-up, but it's nice to be able to control the proportions. In Australia they have cordial, which is a flavoured syrup used in the same way as grenadine, but they don't have any in the cherry flavour.



This epiphany only happened when I offered some Twizzlers to a work colleague.  Normally they are strawberry flavoured, but in the care package Grandma sent they were cherry.  They have licorice over here, just not ramped up on sugar to the same level as in the States. When I offered some to my work friend she first commented that they had no taste. After another work friend inspected the package, read the label to confirm that there was a lot of sugar, she then commented, "Oh, it smells like medicine." Suddenly the other friend who had been eating a piece agreed, "Yeah, it does taste like medicine."  In that moment I had my answer for why cherry flavouring in Australia would never be a success.

In the pharmaceutical companies' rush to make their products more palatable for children, they have plagued a whole portion of the lolly industry with an undesired stigma.  Never again will and Australian child say that their medicine tastes like lollies.  Nay, their once pleasant cherry lollies now all taste like medicine.  The puzzle for me now, though, is why do American children not have the same reaction?

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Cakes to feed angels

When I was growing up my Grandma made angel food cakes for Easter. I'm not sure how many times she actually did this, but I remember it on more than one occasion. I think once or twice she may have decorated it with coconut shavings coloured green to imitate grass, with jelly beans to look like Easter eggs. Regardless of how many times she made it, I remember liking it a lot. I'm not sure if it was the fluffy cake, or the cream cheese frosting that made it so good. Eventually she started making the cakes just for me. Now when I go back to visit it's often a request (along with Pete's Fish and Chips burritos).

A month or two ago Grandma sent me a package and, per my request, included angel food cake mix and tubs of cream cheese frosting. The cake mix hasn't seemed to come to Australia yet, but while I wasn't looking the cream cheese frosting has. When I first moved here you couldn't find the tubs of frosting very easily, but now you can get vanilla, chocolate, and cream cheese.  Woot! Even if I couldn't get it at the store I had the tubs Grandma sent. The only thing I needed was the pan.

The pan problem was a little tougher to solve. I tried looking for it at some kitchenware shops here, but apparently angel food cake isn't on offer very often. Fortunately the internet proved helpful.  I found a pan being sold from a kitchen supply wholesaler, but they had to be bought in lots of six. The internet being more than just a one-outlet-town, I found another option that seemed to work. Thanks Harvey Norman! An order on Sunday meant that the pan was delivered by Tuesday.

With all the mixes, tubs, and pans at the ready I was prepared to have a go at making my first angel food cake. The preparation is really simple, add water and mix. The batter is very frothy and light, and it's amazing that just adding water does that. I read on the box not to use a pan smaller than 10" x 4", so I split the batter into two pans, trying to estimate how much I would need to fill the proper angel food cake pan. I was a bit worried as it was cooking, but it settled a bit when I took it out of the oven and I think it turned out alright.


A bit of the bottom corners came off the cake as I was cutting it from the pan, but it appears to have cooked through properly. The colour seemed right, and everything looked encouraging. Just needed to add the frosting.


I wasn't sure how soft the cake would be, and the frosting had been in the fridge, so I warmed it up a bit first before spreading it on the cake.  Things seemed to be working fine.  Could it be that I had an Easter cake here in Australia??


Yep.  It's a little lop-sided because the edges came off, but it tasted great. I guess now I need to make sure my angel food cake mix dealer back in the States keeps my supply topped up. I hear angel food cake is good for trifles.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Australia, land ho!

When I first moved to Australia in February 2009, I had no idea what I was getting into.  I'd never been here before.  Yes, I moved to a country I had never even visited.  How's that for adventure? Fortunately, it was a great gamble and has turned out really well.

This week I was looking back through some of my posts and pictures and re-read this one: Brisbane, the next great adventure On that post I included some pictures of my trip Down Under. One of them was a photo of the first bit of Australian land that I saw out the window of the plane.  In case you didn't click the link, here it is again:


I've lived in Australia for more than 4 years now and I started wondering what I had seen out the window on my first flight. There were a few distinctive features.  Obviously it was a coast line. There appeared to be some sort of headlands that went down to the water's edge.  You can make out a sandy patch within the forest behind the beach.  If you look really closely you can see some houses.  I also realised that I took this not too long before we landed, so it had to be pretty near to Brisbane. Well, after a little bit of sleuthing I think I've found it.


View Larger Map
And the answer is... Point Lookout, Queensland. This is the northern most tip of Stradbroke Island, in Moreton Bay. The little town is pretty much due East of Brisbane, and it makes perfect sense to have flown over it on the way in. Looks like we flew in, headed a little south of Brisbane and then landed at the airport. I've actually stayed there since flying over it the first time, Christmas holiday 2011. Kinda cool to go back and solve a mini mystery like that.

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Probabilities and pseudoscience pundits

I often think back to my statistics classes when reaching for a pair of socks every morning. Yes, the geek part of my brain is a permanent resident. Usually there are two types of socks in the box in the closet, and the lectures of probabilities run through my head after I retrieve the first sock.

"How many socks would you have to select from a box with X types of socks to ensure that you had a matching pair?"

Since I have two types of socks in the box, the answer is three.  If I selected three socks I would be guaranteed to have a pair, though I could get lucky and get a pair after only selecting two.  I won't go through the maths, but it makes sense if you think through each selection.  The first time I will get one of the two types.  The second time I will get one of the two types as well. Assuming I have mis-matched socks after two selections, the third is guaranteed to match one of the socks I've already selected.

The logic behind that is pretty sound.  You don't have to have a degree in statistics to understand those kinds of probabilities. They make sense to us because we experience them everyday, though I'm not sure everyone thinks about the maths of it when choosing socks.

A strange thing happened a few days ago that helped me understand this whole process a bit differently, and gave me a bit of insight into what scientists have been struggling with recently with the advent of the internet. As I drew my two socks from the box I thought, "Alright, now this next one is guaranteed to match." I was surprised to discover that I had draw a third type of sock from the box. Somehow the contents of the box had become "contaminated" and my rock solid laws of probability were spun into confusion.

Was my original probability wrong? Well, it was based on the assumption that there were only two types of socks in the box.  As long as that assumption was true, so was the probability. The moment it wasn't true - and there were more than two types in the box, the original probability changed. The key, though, is that it changed in a predictable way - but based on a new set of assumptions. With three types of socks I'd now have to draw four to ensure I had a pair.

This was an interesting parallel to my experience with some anti-science groups. They will often claim that science is flawed because it hasn't considered all of the options.  In other words, science can't guarantee there are only two types of socks in the box - so any attempts to explain how many attempts it would take to select a matching pair can't be trusted. Just like my unexpected discovery with the third type of sock, any possibility that there are other options - no matter how remote, is proof that the science is flawed. This is especially difficult to understand when the probabilities for things being talked about, like fluoride, cell phones and cancer, vaccinations, are more complex.  The science isn't just about how many socks you have to select to get a matching pair.

However, despite what the anti-science people may claim, the problem is not that the logic behind the probabilities is flawed. The issue I have with this is that from the anti-science point-of-view the discussion is not about recalibrating the original assumptions to account for what is constantly being discovered, it's a complete discounting of the whole process.  "This part of science is wrong because it can't guarantee that it's right," they might say.  Well, there aren't many guarantees in life.  I'd like a guarantee that I will never have to jump out of a plane or be struck by lightning, but the fact that I am alive on a volatile world means that I have to accept a certain level of risk. Besides, science is not supposed to be about absolute correctness, it changes all the time based on new knowledge and insight. When something is discovered that changes things, scientists go back to the original probabilities and say, "Hey, would you look at that!  There's another type of sock, and that means the number of selections has changed."

So when I selected that third type of sock a few days ago, I thought about how the new discovery didn't actually ruin the years of statistical learning.  Rather, I wondered how it got in there and threw off my expectations. The box should have had two types, and somehow this one got in where it shouldn't have been. When I sorted it into the proper box my original assumption was true again.  I wonder if we will ever get back to a more adaptive kind of logic in popular discussions about science. I certainly don't want to live in a world of either / or's... gray can be such a lovely color.